MINNEAPOLIS — Conventional wisdom holds that Bill Belichick is the best football coach ever, and that Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback ever, and that Aaron Rodgers is this year's Most Valuable Player.
After watching the NFL playoffs this weekend, you have to wonder if only one of those three presumptions holds true.
On Sunday, Brady, playing with a bunch of reserve skill-position players, lost his best offensive lineman to yet another injury and led Tampa Bay to a 31-0 lead before coasting to a 31-15 victory over Philadelphia.
On Saturday, Belichick played the third playoff game of his career without Brady. He lost 47-17 to Buffalo, and it was 33-3 early in the third quarter and 47-10 before a late Patriots touchdown.
Brady's career playoff record is 30-11 with Belichick and 5-0 without him.
Belichick's career playoff record is 30-11 with Brady and 1-2 without him.
In the past two playoff games Belichick has coached without Brady, he is 0-2 while being outscored 76-26.
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Brady won with an odd assortment of skill position players in New England, and now has the greatest quarterbacking résumé in the history of the sport. This year, despite Tampa Bay's many injuries on offense, he led the NFL with 5,316 yards and 43 touchdown passes. He also ranked second in the NFL in QBR, behind Rodgers.
Brady excelled in the regular season the way he excelled Sunday — by using his intelligence and experience to read defenses and release passes so quickly that defenses had little chance to react.
Belichick is undoubtedly a great coach. He won a Super Bowl over a great Rams team when Brady was a young game manager, and he won a Super Bowl against the defending champion Seahawks by befuddling counterpart Pete Carroll, a great coach, in the final minutes.
What Belichick's relative struggles without Brady suggest is that great quarterbacking is more important than great coaching.
Brady's ability to excel no matter who is on the receiving end of his passes, and his remarkable durability and availability at the age of 44, also calls into question the presumption that Rodgers is this year's MVP.
Rodgers' statistical excellence, his QBR, his mobility and his remarkably-low total of four interceptions make him seem like the obvious choice for the award.
His willingness to remain unvaccinated, though, ruled him out of one game and endangered his teammates and other members of the Packers organization.
Brady got vaccinated and played in every game. If you think their performances were similarly impressive, vaccination status is a pretty good tie-breaker.
Brady's ability to elevate Belichick's career provides a reminder of what a lot of old-school football writers have argued for decades: The mark of a great coach is winning with a variety of quarterbacks.
Which brings us to Joe Gibbs and Bill Parcells.
Gibbs won three Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks who are not in the Hall of Fame — Joe Theismann, Doug Williams and Mark Rypien. He also won Super Bowls with three different running backs — John Riggins, Timmy Smith and Earnest Byner.
Gibbs should get extra credit for having to make a smaller playoff field while competing in the same division as Parcells.
Parcells won two Super Bowls — with Phil Simms and Jeff Hostetler at quarterback, and Joe Morris and the aged Ottis Anderson as featured backs.
Parcells and Belichick shutting down a stunningly talented Bills team to win Super Bowl XXV, 20-19, might be the most obvious example of coaching genius in NFL history. Parcells also took over a Jets team that went 1-15 in 1996 and two years later had Vinny Testaverde playing quarterback and holding a 10-0 lead in Denver in the AFC Championship Game, before the Broncos rallied and went on to win the Super Bowl.
Until the recent rise of the Bills, Belichick had an easy time in the woeful AFC East. Gibbs and Parcells spent their primes vying for the same division title.
That might have been the best coaching rivalry in league history, because neither coach was dependent upon a great quarterback.
Postseason QB power rankings: When playoffs begin, there's Tom Brady and then there's everyone else
1. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay (34-11, 7-3 in Super Bowl)
The Bucs went from wild card to Super Bowl champion a year ago and could do it again. It starts against Philadelphia Sunday in what should be the biggest mismatch of the weekend.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay (12-9, 1-0 in Super Bowl)
Rodgers and Co. can rest up for a week as the top seed and then embark on another title game quest. They've lost in the NFC Championship Game in three of the last five years.
3. Patrick Mahomes Kansas City (6-2, 1-1 in Super Bowl)
Mahomes has been more mistake-prone this season, but he has been nails in the postseason until running up against the Bucs in the Super Bowl a year ago. The Chiefs host Pittsburgh Sunday night.
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo (2-2)
Has generally acquitted himself well as a postseason quarterback, with 1,081 yards passing, five TDs and just one pick in addition to 237 yards rushing. The Bills face New England for the third time Saturday night.
5. Dak Prescott, Dallas (1-2)
Has performed well under playoff pressure in three down-to-the-wire games with 794 yards passing, five touchdowns, two interceptions and a 95.7 passer rating. Cowboys host the 49ers Sunday.
6. Derek Carr, Raiders (0-0)
By far the most experienced of the five playoff first-timers having made 127 regular-season starts. Led Raiders to playoffs in 2016 but was sidelined by a broken fibula in Week 16. Raiders visit Cincinnati Saturday.
7. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati (0-0)
Supposedly 100% after sitting out the regular-season finale, Burrow is as good as it gets as a downfield thrower. Concerns? Could be slowed by inclement weather and he's been sacked 51 times. The Raiders, their opponent, can rush the passer.
8. Kyler Murray, Arizona (0-0)
Is Murray a special game-changing talent or an entertaining gimmick? Looks like the former but the playoffs are where reputations are made. Was 1-1 against the Rams, Monday night's opponent, with 651 yards passing, 100 yards rushing.
9. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers (2-1, 0-1 in Super Bowl)
Is it just me or are some of Garoppolo's slow starts of late cause for concern, even if he recovers in the end? Pretty much was a handoff machine in the 2019 playoffs and struggled late in a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. Dallas is up first on Sunday.
10. Matthew Stafford, L.A Rams (0-3)
Stafford arrived via trade to take the Rams to the next level. He's been spectacular and spectacularly error-prone. Like the first half against the 49ers and then the second half in Week 18, for instance. The Rams host Arizona Monday night.
11. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee (2-2)
Can't deny Tannehill led the Titans to the top seed and the bye in the AFC. Has never thrown for more than 209 yards in four playoff games and was twice under 100. Some team will force him to throw and it could be trouble.
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (13-9, 2-1 in Super Bowl)
Has the Chargers to thank for getting first-round date in Kansas City Sunday night. Surviving like an aging former power pitcher on slow curves and change-ups, hard to see Pittsburgh getting past Mahomes and the Chiefs.
13. Mac Jones, New England (0-0)
Jones had been deftly handled by offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Like, for instance, the game he threw three times in a win over Buffalo — which is Saturday night's opponent. Level of play dropped off late in the season.
14. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia (0-0)
Just 16 touchdown passes in 15 starts and sometimes shaky as a passer but had 784 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. For Hurts to take down Brady in the playoff opener would be one of the all-time playoff upsets.
