And the winners are…

Best Picture:

“Call Me by Your Name”

“Darkest Hour”

“Dunkirk”

“Get Out”

“Lady Bird”

“Phantom Thread”

“The Post”

“The Shape of Water”

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will win: “Three Billboards”

Contender: “Shape of Water”

Should win: “Three Billboards”

Analysis: Perhaps a one-vote margin, either way.

Director:

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan

“Get Out,” Jordan Peele

“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig

“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson

“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Will win: Del Toro

Contender: Nolan

Should win: Del Toro

Analysis: Even Gerwig has a shot here.

Lead Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”

Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”

Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”

Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Will win: Gary Oldman

Contender: Chalamet

Should win: Oldman.

Analysis: Oldman will fight them on the beaches, he will fight them on…

Lead Actress:

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”

Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Will win: Frances McDormand

Contender: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan

Should win: McDormand

Analysis: Most intense performance wins the gold over four great nominees.

Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”

Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”

Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”

Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will win: Rockwell

Contender: Dafoe

Should win: Rockwell

Analysis: Some pundits think Rockwell’s racist character will be shunned in this year of Oscar equity.

Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”

Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”

Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Will win: Janney

Contender: Metcalf

Should win: Janney

Analysis: From an Emmy for West Wing to an Oscar.

Adapted Screenplay:

“Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory

“The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber

“Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green

“Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin

“Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Will win: Ivory, “Call Me.”

Contender: “Mudbound.”

Should win: “Call Me.”

Analysis: Academy honors a ground-breaking film here.

Original Screenplay:

“The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani

“Get Out,” Jordan Peele

“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig

“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

Will win: “Three Billboards” edges “Get Out.”

Contender: “Get Out”

Should win: “Three Billboards”

Analysis: All five fine films have a chance here. First nose across the line wins.

Animated Feature:

“The Boss Baby,” Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito

“The Breadwinner,” Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo

“Coco,” Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson

“Ferdinand,” Carlos Saldanha

“Loving Vincent,” Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

Will win: “Coco”

Contender: “Breadwinner” has a political hook as a story of an Afghan girl who dresses as a boy so she can work without angering the Taliban.

Should win: Coco

Analysis: Pixar back on top.

Cinematography:

“Blade Runner 2049,” Roger Deakins

“Darkest Hour,” Bruno Delbonnel

“Dunkirk,” Hoyte van Hoytema

“Mudbound,” Rachel Morrison

“The Shape of Water,” Dan Laustsen

Will win: Deakins

Contender: “Shape of Water”

Should win: “Blade Runner”

Analysis: Winless Deakins has lost 13! times. This time he gets the gold.

Best Foreign Language Film:

“A Fantastic Woman” (Chile)

“The Insult” (Lebanon)

“Loveless” (Russia)

“On Body and Soul (Hungary)

“The Square” (Sweden)

Will win: “Fantastic Woman”

Contender: “The Square.”

Should win: “Fantastic Woman”

Analysis: MeToo voters honor A Fantastic (trans) Woman.

Production Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer

“Blade Runner 2049,” Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola

“Darkest Hour,” Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

“Dunkirk,” Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis

“The Shape of Water,” Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau

Will win: “The Shape of Water”

Contender: “Blade Runner”

Should win: “Shape of Water” by a ripple.

Analysis: Five exquisite nominees.

Costume Design:

“Beauty and the Beast,” Jacqueline Durran

“Darkest Hour,” Jacqueline Durran

“Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges

“The Shape of Water,” Luis Sequeira

“Victoria and Abdul,” Consolata Boyle

Will win: “Phantom Thread”

Contender: “Beauty and the Beast”

Should win: “Phantom Thread”

Analysis: A film about a fashion designer shouldn’t lose this one.

Original Score:

“Dunkirk,” Hans Zimmer

“Phantom Thread,” Jonny Greenwood

“The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat

“Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” John Williams

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Carter Burwell

Will win: “Shape of Water”

Contender: “Phantom Thread”

Should win: Desplat for “Shape of Water.”

Analysis: Desplat, in his ninth nomination, wins for the second time.

Original Song:

“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige

“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens

“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez

“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common

“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

Will win: “Remember Me”

Contender: “This is Me”

Should win: “Remember Me”

Analysis: Oscar lets it go to “Me.”

And last, but far from least:

Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing: “Dunkirk;” Visual Effects: “Blade Runner 2049;” Makeup and Hair: “Darkest Hour;”

Best Documentary Feature: “Faces Places;” Best Documentary Short Subject: “Edith+ Eddie” will edge “Heroin(e);” Best Live Action Short Film: “DeKalb Elementary;” Animated Short: Koby Bryant’s “Dear Basketball.”