Voters undecided on ballot measures

Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., called 625 randomly selected voters Oct. 23-24. All of the voters polled said they intend to vote in the general election Nov. 5, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Constitutional Amendments 37 and 38 would require supporters of proposed initiatives and constitutional amendments to gather more signatures from rural voters to qualify the measures for the ballot. Supporters say the measures would force more rural participation in the initiative process, which is often dominated by voters in the state’s largest cities, where legislative districts are more concentrated. But opponents say the proposals place greater weight on the votes of rural people, violating the “one person, one vote” principle.

Thirty-six percent of the voters polled last week said they would vote against C-37 if the election were that day. The measure would change the Montana Constitution to require signatures from at least 10 percent of the voters in at least 28 of the state’s 56 counties before a citizen-recommended constitutional amendment could be placed on the ballot. To get such a proposal on the ballot now, supporters need the signatures 10 percent of the voters in 40 of the state’s 100 legislative districts.

Thirty percent of those polled said they would vote for C-37 — meaning voters were slightly more likely to turn down the measure — but another 34 percent said they were undecided, leaving the outcome up in the air.

The split was nearly even for C-38, which would require signatures from at 5 percent of the voters in 28 counties to qualify an initiative changing state statute. Current law requires signatures from 5 percent of the voters in 34 districts.

Thirty-three percent of those polled said they would vote for C-38 if the election were held that day, while 33 percent said they would vote against it, and 34 percent were undecided.

For both C-37 and C-38, men were more likely to have their minds made up and more likely to have decided to vote against the measures.

Just under a third of the voters polled, 28 percent, also remain undecided about C-39, allowing the state to invest public funds in the stock market.

But 45 percent said they would vote against the measure if the election were that day, and only 27 percent said they would vote for it. Even supporters of C-39 have said they would be surprised if it passes, given the last year’s sweeping downturn in stock prices.

Again, men were more likely to have their minds made up on C-39, and more likely to have decided to vote against it.

Initiative 146, however, will pass easily if the poll results hold true.

I-146 requires the state to spend 32 percent of the state’s approximately $30 million annual tobacco settlement payment, $9.6 million, on prevention programs. Another 17 percent, $5.1 million, would increase access to government-funded health insurance for poor children and high-risk adults. And 11 percent, $3.3 million, would go to the state’s general fund.

Currently, all of the money allocated by the initiative — $18 million a year — goes to the state’s coffers. The remaining 40 percent of the yearly payment, about $12 million, goes to a health care trust fund, created by voters in 2000. The trust fund would not be affected by the initiative. Montana will continue receiving the payments, part of a settlement reached between states and big tobacco in 1998, through the year 2025.